323. Golden Age for the casual study of military history

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Military history

I've been sitting on something I started months ago about this being the Golden Age for the casual study of military history, thanks to all the great things on YouTube. I may pull that in here, but, at least to start, I'm going to talk about last night.

It was cold and I decided to stay in with a bottle of wine and amuse myself on the computer. I had nothing particular in mind. So here's how I ended up spending my evening: "The Great War" channel was back with a new host and an episode on the German revolutions of 1918 and 1919. This got me off in a military history direction. 

The day before I had watched a "Military History Not Visualized" episode on "The Rzhev Meat Grinder." 

HERE's the link.

This was a Soviet campaign in 1942 that doesn't get the attention it deserves because there was very little movement. The Soviets attempted to smash in the German salient near Rzhev (it looks like the more famous Battle of the Bulge in 1944, but the German line held.) So, having been thinking about the consequences of that action, I finally clicked on something I had been ignoring for a long time, "TIK's" "Fall Blau 1942."

HERE's the link.

Military History Visualized, and now Military History Not Visualized, are often interesting and sometimes go into great detail on subjects like the actual composition of German divisions at various times during the war. But TIK may be my favorite military history presenter. His background is in economics and he's relatively new to military history. Unlike most of us, who have been reading about these topics for decades and who often started reading sub-standard books full of misinformation, he is starting fresh with the best sources he can get his hands on. And his economics background works to his advantage when it comes to logistics and the essential economic aspect of modern war. (Really any war.) His episode on the importance of oil for the Germans in WW2 is probably the first thing a student of the subject should view.

TIK has also done videos where he carefully looked at German and Soviet troop strength from year to year and where he broke down German reinforcements not just by year but by the particular front -- North, Center, South -- they were sent to. All this to show that much "common knowledge" about the relative strength in numbers of the two sides is simply wrong.

What I wanted to see in his presentation of Fall Blau, was if my guess from watching the Rzhev video was correct, that the Soviet offensives in the Center prevented sufficient strength from being sent to the South, where the Germans would fail to capture the oil resources they desperately required in the Caucasus. And the answer is, maybe.

According to TIK, the Germans were so successful in the opening phases of Fall Blau, that they concluded, mistakenly, that the Soviet Army in the South was broken and the battle was won. They then redeployed significant forces to the North and Center and even sent some divisions to the West, as the Anglo-Saxon Allies were starting to get a bit frisky. So you could argue that it was the strain of the Soviet attacks on the North and Center that pulled those troops up from the South where the Germans would soon run out of gas before reaching Grozny, and where the 6th Army would get trapped at Stalingrad when the remaining German forces in the South proved too weak to break them out.

But, of course, there's another way to look at this. When I said the Germans "ran out of gas" I meant this literally as well as figuratively. They were simply overextended. Every success had pushed their lines further from home and made the supply situation worse. They now had an increasingly active line to defend starting at Leningrad, running almost to Moscow, and then south past Stalingrad and into the Caucasus. And unlike the Allied shortage of supplies in France in 1944, this shortage wasn't temporary. Wasn't going to be made better in time as oil pipelines connected France to Britain and as the Allies finally won port facilities. For the Germans, with the failure to take the Caucasus, the future was simply the inevitable consumption of what little oil they had on hand.

What I don't know is which of the two factors most drove the decision to remove divisions from the army groups in the South. Was it mostly logistics or mostly the strain on the other fronts? Or was it an even blend of the two? 

Though it may not matter that much. One of the things I noticed watching TIK's excellent coverage of the British Operation Crusader in North Africa in 1941, is that you can look at these extended WW2 campaigns in the same way you look at a Napoleonic battle that takes place over a day or two. If you imagine Napoleon (and Berthier) in command on the Soviet side of this fight, they would have done exactly what the Soviets did. They would have spread the Germans out as thinly as possible, waited until they spent their attack, and then launched a shock attack. Stalingrad was a more vulnerable salient than the one at Rzhev and, since the Soviets actually had more to lose in the South anyway, breaking the German line there was almost ideal. It relieved Astrakhan as well as the Caucasus.

But this was just the start of my evening. Next was "The Chieftain's" lecture on the development of armored warfare by the French Army leading up to 1940. 

HERE's a link to his coverage of the Renault R35.

HERE's a link to part 1 for the SOMUA S35. Part 2 HERE.
The Chieftain is one of my experts on tanks and armored warfare. He has the distinction of actually being a tank commander with fairly recent experience in M-1 Abrams tanks. He's done a long series of videos about particular Armored Fighting Vehicles (AVFs) describing them inside and out -- with way too much information about track maintenance -- but his insights into the ergonomics of the various machines is particularly useful. And this is particularly true when it comes to the French Army tanks of 1940. After watching his videos, shot inside the turrets of these French tanks, you feel nothing but pity for the poor French tank crews. 

But this video is about the development of French tank doctrine and the uncomfortable relationship between the Army and the government in France at the time. He has done a similar video on the British situation which resulted in a fatally flawed doctrine that didn't get improved until 1942 -- and I still don't understand how the Brits screwed this up so badly. The French infantry, the French cavalry, and de Gaulle, all had quite reasonable ideas about what their armored warfare doctrine should be, but political factors seem to have made it impossible to implement these ideas. 

(Now, knowing something of the doctrine of the U.S. Army, the German, the British, and the French armies, it would seem that the French were actually closest to having it right in the 1930s. The Germans would end up having the advantage as they were able to learn from their mistakes in some relatively easy early operations, and at least their main tanks were solid enough to remain useful throughout the war.)

The ergonomic failures of the French tanks, especially their tiny turrets and the inability to see the battlefield around them, or to communicate with supporting elements, would not have been so fatal if the tanks had been used in the combined arms formations that everyone wrote about. Instead, nearly blind French tanks, in small numbers and unsupported by infantry or artillery, had to joust with Panzers that could see them, communicate with each other on the radio, and that had three man turret crews to efficiently deploy their weaponry. 


And finally, just as I was about to go to bed, Drachinifel, my favorite source of naval history information, posted his 29th question and answer video. Another 47 minutes of geeky delight. 

HERE's a link to the episode.

What amazes me is that these people can all find audiences. I certainly don't know anyone who would willingly submit to watching this much military history, or listening to, since all of these channels are mostly audio with some providing images or maps when absolutely required. 

And there is yet another channel, "Forgotten Weapons", that specializes in in-depth information about particular weapons. (The "Forgotten" part is a little confusing at this point as he also covers the best known weapons as well.) His episode on the first domestic machine gun used by the French Army is an engineering delight. 

In some ways, Forgotten Weapons is the best of these channels in that it presents information in a way that no other media could equal. Neither a documentary nor a book could be as informative as Ian taking apart, reassembling, and often firing the weapon in question. Watching Ian try to control a fully automatic M-14 tells you everything you need to know about why the weapon was a failure -- and it also suggests why the U.S. Army held on to the heavy B.A.R. as long as it did.

HERE's the link to the French St Etienne Mle machine gun of 1907.

320. So random

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Every Breath You Take

The day after I returned from Portland I walked down to the Bank Cafe only to find it closed with a vague sign saying they hoped to be open soon. The reason I was going there was because they have a good (corporate) HVAC system and that was a particularly smokey day. I figured being there would be the best thing for the health of my lungs given the poor air quality.

When I tried again on Wednesday, after the air had cleared, I discovered they had been closed because of the poor air quality. The logic of this eludes me as I suspect my air cleaner at home is better than what most people have. Some schools closed for the same reason, which was even worse as, with nothing else to do, some of the kids just went outside and played in the murky air. How many people have HVAC systems at home with air cleaning capacity? I would love to have one of those high end systems that bring in air, filter it, run it through a heat exchanger, and then distribute it around the apartment. There’s a second fan pulling air out of the apartment, and through the heat exchanger. You can even adjust the power of the two fans so that your space is positively or negatively pressurized (I’d go with positively to keep the neighbor’s cigarette smoke out.) I’d also like world peace. My guess is that operating a system like that -- even with the heating and cooling units off -- would take more electricity than I currently use for everything else.

After Black Friday or The day after...

The first two blocks of Stockton street are carpeted and entirely free of construction stuff, but I can’t tell if this is the usual just-for-the-season change or if they are actually done. I passed a dog having a nearly orgasmic roll on the grass-like carpet. I can’t tell if they are not finished setting up the holiday street furniture or what. (They weren't finished yet.) The first block seems in good shape but the next block seems incomplete or thrown together at the last moment. Since this is possibly the last year the street will be pedestrianized -- as the subway is supposed to open next year -- you’d think they would go all out. And that second block is the one with the puppies and kittens in the Macy’s windows. Last year it was kind of a mess because several areas -- like the shaft down to the station one hundred feet below -- were still blocked off. This year the entire block is clear.

Black Friday it rained all day but today is sunny and perfect, really. I’m not having any luck thinking of things I need to shop for. Aside from some groceries. I’m ashamed to admit this, but I really have better luck ordering clothes from LL Bean than from dropping into a store. The decline of local retail is one problem I do contribute to. Though, considering how few clothes I buy... And I do try to save something for Christmas Eve. Sadly, the only thing on my wish list so far is having my apartment cleaned by someone other than me. And I usually end up regretting that.

I've been holding on to this hoping to resolve the question of the future of Stockton Street. I believe they are going to return it to traffic use as soon at they complete the electrical work and possibly repave the sidewalk outside Neiman Marcus. The next block up is still blocked off as a staging site for work on the subway, except for a single lane. Maybe they will wait until that's freed up as well. Though it would be odd to have two, newly paved yet unused blocks of street in the heart of Union Square.

Bank Cafe

Now that the scaffolding is down outside, they’ve moved the comfortable chairs back to the corner window. Where I’m now sitting. And so I’m noticing that the Amazon Go store is now open diagonally across the intersection under the Crocker Tower. I’m curious to see how it works, but I’m afraid if I go over there they will grab me and throw me out on the sidewalk for the crime of not owning a smartphone.

Politics... but not what you're thinking

I’ve written before (I’m pretty sure) about San Francisco’s ridiculously large political footprint in California politics. Both our U.S. Senators and our new Governor have held city offices, two of the three were mayors. But now it’s getting out of hand. The former city DA and former California Attorney General and newly elected US Senator is now running for President. I assume she’s trying to steal a march on Gavin Newsom, our newly elected Governor (and ex-Mayor) as they are both such obviously attractive Democratic candidates. Only I can’t support her this time.

The problem is that she has no administrative or legislative experience. I’m sure she would be better than Trump, but that’s a very low bar. Also, it would be nice if she were to do the job we just elected her to do for at least a couple years before running for something else. I’m still waiting to see if Newsom has learned from the mistakes he made as Mayor. If so, then he would be an excellent candidate in four or so years. 


Kamala Harris would probably be a very good U.S. Attorney General if someone else were to be elected President, but I would still like to see her serve out her Senate term. The only silver lining I can see here would be if she moved on and then Newsom appointed Willie Brown to fill her seat for the rest of her term. Now that would be spectacular.

“Every battle is won before it’s ever fought.”

― Sun Tzu

While I really like this quote, I think it’s only true in part. I can think of plenty of battles and wars that were lost before they were fought, but there are also battles that were won against the odds by playing the situation just right. Midway would be an example. And there are other battles won by the side that made the fewest mistakes -- that would be a long list.

But it is true that you need to be prepared to win. El Alamein would be a battle Sun Tzu would have appreciated. Also the Battle of Nashville.

IJN After action assessment

The DDs were great, just not enough of them as the war progressed. CAs also excellent. CLs 2nd rate, Japan could and should have upgraded here. BBs  only the Kongo class was really useful. The USN got better service out of even the antique Arkansas than the IJN did out of its “real” BBs. 

Besides CLs the IJN should have invested in super cruisers, ships with the speed of a CA, the same weapons with perhaps a heavier main battery, and better protection. A description might sound like the Deutschland class, but what I have in mind is more a large CA than a small BB. The IJN could have gotten much more use from these ships than they did from the Yamatos. (6 x 11” in twin turrets, probably 15-20k displacement.) Ironically, the USN thought the IJN was working on larger cruisers like this which is why they built the Alaska class ships. Only the IJN didn't think seriously about it until they learned of the Alaska class, and then it was too late as even the Alaskas didn't get into service until the last year of the war. The Alaskas are actually a bit more ship than I have in mind. The Des Moines class ships are more like it, though they took advantage of rapid-fire 8" guns rather than larger guns.

212. The power of pain

Hardly Strictly Bluegrass 2017

In previous years I've literally limped out of the park at the end of my Sunday shift at HSB, totally spent, but not this year. In sports, this would be called "peaking at the right time." My back, wrist, and all my various body-parts were perfect at the crucial moment and I could have worked longer if I hadn't run out of bags and if idiots weren't taking apart the area where I was trying to work. I can't even explain how my feet were so much better than normal at the end of 27 hours of working hard on uneven ground.

Take that being-a-senior-citizen!

As I expected, things did not go according to plan -- always a safe bet. The new Arrow vendor row -- on the opposite side of Hellman Hollow (Speedway Meadow) where the Arrow Stage was in previous years -- was both smaller and more contained. Aside from a lack of shade, it was easier to work than the old location... until the end. 

The only act I always catch is Emmylou Harris's final set on the Banjo Stage. I take care of as many stations at the back of that crowd as I can handle -- this time just one as I couldn't see any others in the crowd. By the time I returned to my vendors, they had filled my well-ordered compost cans with way more compost than anyone could deal with and, to make things really interesting, they were in the process of taking the whole area apart -- something that previously didn't happen until the following day. 

I had to create order in trashed stations and sort the usual black vendor bags, while the stations themselves were either blocked or being shifted around. If I hadn't run out of bags, I would have stayed even longer than I did, but between the lack of bags and being unable to get to some of our cans, I finally just gave up and went home. Still, I think I got all the vendor bags -- though there may have been some in areas I couldn't get to -- and I did the best I could with the huge volume of heavy, high quality compost the vendors left behind as they shut down.

If it had gone any better, I would have been suspicious, so I can't complain -- despite the complaining and suggestions-for-next-year emails I've already sent out.

But where, you ask, does "the power of pain" come in? As I said, I felt great last night after I arrived home and, was a little stiff, but otherwise still surprisingly good when I got up this morning. None-the-less, I got my ass up and went to the gym this morning for an abbreviated session. The year old memory of my double hamstring cramp from the Monday after HSB last year was sufficiently motivating to get me to the gym even though I felt fine and was taking a bunch of other steps to avoid cramps. 

And here's the show and tell:

Our HQ between my food vendor area and Banjo Stage with a smaller eco-station in the foreground and my boss, the Mary in Green Mary, in the background:

"My" compost dumpster Before:

Same dumpster at 4pm on Sunday, with three hours of concert and more hours of dumping still to come:

The before of the recycling dumpster: 

Again, the After at 4pm on Sunday. Note the comparatively empty landfill in the background. This is why we do what we do:

(This is one of our two smaller dumpster locations. I pestered Mary until she finally went along and got the event to go along as well. Previously, all this waste would have been hauled much further away in golf carts and truck to our main dumpster/sorting location at the stables. This saves a huge amount of time and some gas.)

Emmylou Harris on stage at the end of the festival. The face in the center of the backdrop is Warren Hellman who started and funded the festival:

My view from the back of the crowd with some of our compost cans in the foreground:

I wanted to get the last of the sun at the top of the trees, but my station got busy and I missed it. This was the last shot I took:

HSB related...

The Arming Scene

I've written before about the scene in action films (like Predator 2) and possibly originating in The Odyssey, where the hero puts on his armor and gathers his weapons. (There are similar scenes in The Iliad, but I like the one with Odysseus the best.) It occurred to me as I dressed for day one of HSB that I have my own little arming scene. Here's how it goes.

The evening before I lay out my cargo pants and fill the pockets with the personal items and gear I will need for my work. Now that I'm carrying a backpack, most things go there, including spare rolls of bags, marking pens, energy bars, 1st aid supplies, my headlamp, and camera. I still put my work gloves and water bottle in my cargo pockets. 

I also assemble my hat, picker-stick, lifting belt, and the Green Mary t-shirt I wear over my long-sleeved undershirt. And I write out any notes I need for the event -- who's the crew chief, where we are to meet, any transit notes including a time schedule for when I have to leave to arrive on time.

The next morning I apply sunscreen (magical ointment as protection against Apollo, the Sun god) then put on my UPF 50 Apollo resistant undershirt (I only have two of these so I went with a thicker cotton shirt on what was supposed to be the coolest day of HSB), my thin under-socks and heavy outer socks, and then put on my cargo pants, one leg at a time. Then I put on my heavy work boots -- because I knew I would be working on uneven ground, for this event I laced them all the way up for extra support -- before putting on the lifting-belt and then the Green Mary t-shirt on top.

Finally I put on my UPF 50, wide-brimmed hat and firmly grab my tool... I mean my picker-stick. Thus equipped I go forth to sort and haul and dump.


Not for the first time, I'm almost certain, on Saturday -- the busiest day on the Speedway Meadow portion of HSB -- I noticed a similarity between managing our Greening operation and fighting a battle. It is so satisfying when you are busy doing something else and you suddenly get this visceral understanding of military strategy, relevant to most any era and region. I'm going to start with the military version and return to the Greening.

Napoleon lived and died by this strategy and usually it worked for him -- this is one of the things Tolstoy found incomprehensible in War and Peace. But I'm going to take the instance I know best (this one didn't work either, but it almost did) Gettysburg in the American Civil War. First you attack on a flank, in this instance the Union right flank. The enemy is forced to reinforce that flank to prevent a breakthrough. Next you attack on the left flank forcing the enemy to throw in even more reserves and even shift units over from the center. Finally, you launch your main assault at the center where the enemy is weakened, and after most of his reserves are committed elsewhere.

At HSB, besides Speedway Meadow, where I always work, there are additional stages in Marx Meadow and in Lindley Meadow. Mid-afternoon on Saturday we started getting calls for help from Lindley and sent some people over to help. Mary would be an awful general as she over-reacts to any situation like this, but in this case she was already off and it was other people who left us with very few people on hand when the crowd surged back in our direction at the end of the day. I had to leave my vendors unattended (like leaving toddlers alone with balloons filled with gasoline and a bunch of lighters) and go out on the field to keep the stations near the food from overflowing. My constant whining about how great the large, blue recycling toters lined with heavy bags were for dealing with situations just like this, payed off this year as we had these all over the field. 

It takes a great deal to fill one of these toters, and even when that happens one person (me) can dump out about half the contents into one of these spare bags to keep the station functioning. (You can even sort out the compost and landfill at the same time so you end up with a fairly clean bag of recycling next to a fairly clean toter, or two toters since they are usually paired and I can dump twice into the same bag.) This method worked perfectly on Saturday. But back to my analogy...

In our case we are not opposing an enemy general but, in the HSB case, the person who scheduled the events on the various stages. It is very easy to end up playing whack-a-mole with crowds that shift from stage to stage, meadow to meadow. And anyway, the worst that can happen is that some eco-stations over-flow for a period of time until someone can get to them. We would rather this didn't happen, but it's also inevitable when the crowd gets to a certain density, regardless of staffing.

But as I watched (listened) to this developing on Saturday, I could completely understand the over reaction of a general being attacked by Napoleon. In the heat of the moment you are trying to be strong everywhere and end up being weak at the critical point. 

Meade, at Gettysburg, had the advantage of a numerically larger army that was still arriving at the battlefield so he could keep sending new units in to fill in the gaps in his line. 


My favorite sight of the festival
In that crowd watching Emmylou Harris, a man walked past me carrying, or rather embracing, a dog. The dog was a Beagle and they were chest to chest, face to face. The Beagle and I locked eyes as they went past and seemed to communicate "Don't judge us" -- instead of the "I wouldn't mind eating whatever you have in that bag" I usually get from dogs when I'm working.