4/26/22 - Day 770/315
The new case rate has more than doubled since the low point on 3/12. The number of people in intensive care is still very low -- so this is what living with the virus looks like. Everyone has test kits now so if you get it you can quickly respond and get the treatment drug. Assuming you aren’t one of the many people with their head up their ass about COVID.
I have no problem with this and I think our Mayor Breed has handled the pandemic perfectly. The situation with the “homeless” is impossible so I don’t judge her for that failure -- why should she be any different than all the mayors that came before her.
It’s my impression that viruses tend to become more infectious but less deadly over time -- could be wrong -- but I wouldn’t object to a more deadly variant to thin the anti-vax herd. Especially if it hits before the next election or even the one in 2024.
In non-COVID news, the Peet’s here has been so bad about stocking croissants that I finally looked for other sources in the neighborhood and found three. I tried one this morning (of course today Peet’s had croissants) and it was much better. Not sure if it was $2 better, but it was a nice change of pace. I will enjoy sampling the other two. And then the chocolate versions... the place I tried today even properly calls them Pain au Chocolat. I may end up opting for a combination of Peet’s pastries plus hitting one of the other, better places, when they are croissant free.
I had a great idea of repurposing my A History of Europe material on Medium, but then discovered that it isn’t yet in the public domain -- still at least a decade.
The British North African Campaign Re-examined
When you study the North African campaign in WW2, especially the British phase prior to Torch, it would seem that the British undermined their cause by diverting forces to Greece (March 1941) and then to Syria (June 1941). You might think that, if only they hadn’t done those things they could have performed better against the Germans (and Rommel). But what if this isn’t true? What if the British were being really cunning?
The logic behind the British North African campaign was the same as the logic behind the Peninsula Campaign during the Napoleonic Wars. The comparatively weaker British army would fight on land at a point that was easiest for them and hardest for their enemy. The Axis powers had to transport men and supplies across the Mediterranean Sea to North Africa where their ships and planes could be interdicted. The more successful the Germans and Italians were, the more troops and supplies they would need and the more difficult their logistics became. Finally, there was nothing west of Alexandria that the British really cared about. Winning or losing Cyrenaica meant nothing.
When you look at the situation in this way, then every time the British took Cyrenaica they made their logistical situation harder and risked the Germans realizing that this whole campaign was not really worth the trouble. So, by weakening their forces and setting up Rommel for a great victory, they were also pulling more Axis men and supplies into North Africa and stretching out the Axis lines of communications. If the British had sat down and picked a best spot to fight the decisive battle against the Axis in North Africa, El Alamein would have been an obvious option. Their own logistical situation was ideal while the Axis powers were stretched to the limit. And by November 1942 the Americans had arrived and were about to open a second front in the far west. It was time to put an end to the “game” and secure Africa prior to the invasion of Italy.
If this analysis is correct, then Churchill (I think it’s fair to give him credit here, he was a racist and a drunk, but he wasn’t stupid) played the Germans like a fiddle.
The Bee Tree
The bush/tree outside my kitchen window is actually in the neighbor’s garden. I only see the top and side. If you had asked me, I would have said it blooms starting in March but at least this year it is only now, in May, really in full bloom. The blooms are not that impressive, but the bees seem to like them. As of this week it is buzzing with bees most of the day. I do wonder where the bees come from. I’ve even noticed a few bumble bees recently.The only hives I know of are over eight blocks away... I take that back, there may be one only a block away. I will have to check the next time I’m walking over there.
The blooming should be over some time next month at which point I will trim the bush back substantially as it has grown about two feet this spring and brushes against my building.
Our stubborn little tree in a large pot out in the alley is fully leafed out now. There are two branches at the top that seem to be dead and I’m wondering if I should prune it back now and how far. Last year it was really slow to green but this year it popped out early and looks pretty healthy. Pretty amazing considering what it has gone through over the years.It lives on my bath water, for the most part -- actually the water I catch while waiting for the stream to get hot when I take a shower. I would put in a pump to give me instant hot water without any waste, but that would require both electrical and plumbing work in a very small bathroom. Saving the water for the garden is probably the smarter solution..
Day 785/330 5/10/2022 Pandemic
The numbers are interesting. The new case numbers are almost as high as the Delta peak, but they are not going up at the same rate -- and nowhere near the Omicron rate -- and the hospitalization rates are still quite small. Lots of famous people are testing positive -- Steve Kerr, the Warriors coach is the latest --, but with minimal symptoms. If Omicron cleaned out the pockets of the unvaxxed, then maybe it is under control. I’ve stopped eating indoors and am taking extra precautions at times, but life is going on pretty much as normal. We are greening all the usual events -- I’m trying really hard to dodge working Bay2Breakers, I may have to play the “I’m 70!” card again.
For weeks I was trying to get caught up with a backlog of recommended pieces to read. I was just not making much progress. So I sorted through my inbox deleting all the old links it looked like I would never get around to. Now I’m caught up and wouldn’t mind looking up some of those links. Sometimes you just can’t win. So I’m going to reread my blog of A History of Europe starting at the beginning, or nearly the beginning.. Something I’ve been meaning to do in any case.
My second world traveling friend has contracted a mild case of COVID. This time in Italy. Everyone seems to be going to Italy.
Day 792/337 - 5/17/22
Noticed something I can’t explain while riding the bus just now. A young woman trotting barefoot in the mid-Market area caught my eye. The second time the bus caught up with her I noticed more: She was wearing a skirt and matching top but didn’t have any sort of bag or even a pocket; while her clothing looked normal, there was something about her fixed gaze that looked off. My guess is some sudden mental health breakdown. In a way, this is more disturbing than all the usual raving lunatics I see all the time.
Day 794/339 - 5/19/2022
Good looks
Since my “office” is in the same block as the Max Mara shop, I am teaching myself to appreciate those clothes Martha Grimes is so fond of. And I do like them, as clothes. A very simple, understated look that obviously is expensive to achieve. But I can’t say it’s a look I would prefer to see on an attractive woman. Perhaps my opinion would change if I actually saw them on attractive women.
There are a couple “looks” I have noticed recently and liked. There’s a simple jeans with a top look where the jeans are worn without a belt. I’m not sure why it works but it does. And there’s a somewhat older look where a woman wears long sleeves that cover most of her hands, only exposing perhaps half of her fingers. If she has nice hands, it is a great look. Again I don’t know why. And I’m still seeing that jeans with tall boots look that has worked for so long now.
Ran into a thought provoking piece on Medium examining the various responses to the COVID pandemic and questioning some of the decisions that were made. Basically, she was thinking that perhaps the Swedes had it right all along and we shouldn’t have locked down in 2020.
If you compare the experiences of NYC and SF, I think most people would agree that SF handled the situation better. The cost of locking down sooner was economic. The cost of waiting too long was in deaths and the overwhelming of the hospital system and resulting burnout of those workers. It would be interesting to compare the rate of essential hospital worker turnover in both areas. The nurses here think they are short staffed, but I don’t think they’ve ever been slammed like nurses in other areas have been.
Yes, there is a high economic cost associated with this. Businesses here are still dying even as others are reopening or opening for the first time. Was the economic cost too high given the low fatality rate of the disease? How high would it have to be to justify the cost? Unfortunately, there’s no way to know how high the fatality rate will be before the fact so this calculus doesn’t really get you far. If you acted on the assumption that it would be just another flu, and then it turned out to be much more deadly you would be screwed. Though, given that a substantial portion of the population would rather see thousands of people die every day than get a free vaccine, you also have to question if all those potential deaths would be that much of a problem.
Our new case numbers are quite high right now, and I’m taking even more precautions than I was a month ago, but I’m still out every day and I do not want to see the city locked down again. The hospitalization rate is up, but the Intensive Care rate is still surprisingly low given that most of the cases are from the unvaccinated. And just in the past three months I finally know people, three at last count, who have caught mild cases of the disease. Now it really is more or less like the flu and my only regret is that it isn’t thinning the herd of more of the “hesitant.”
But we really should be planning for the next time, and not just the next surge. I continue to think that pandemic cases should be limited to specific facilities. The majority of hospitals should be able to operate normally. The hours nurses can work should be limited to prevent their burning out. People should be encouraged to remain at home if at all possible. Oxygen and other supplies and advice should be provided -- perhaps also a visiting nurse service -- but people (especially unvaccinated people when there is a vaccine -- should be kept out of the hospital as much as possible. Perhaps we need a form of pandemic hospice which may or may not end in death.
As for the economy, this is basically a natural disaster, like an earthquake or fire or hurricane. There should be governmental aid to help businesses. The biggest problem for business is when the customer base dries up as is the case here in the Financial Districts and Union Square. But this, again, is similar to what would happen in a major natural disaster. Tourists and conventioners and workers are going to be scarce after all the buildings burn down.
This get especially complicated and I have no idea how to deal with it, but businesses need to be able to suspend operation for a reasonable length of time. Ruining retail business is not in the interest of landlords or the city. One thing that would improve the situation here is more residential units in the commercial/shopping districts. I would like to see at least 30% residential. This would guarantee a basic level of business even during a pandemic. The neighborhoods here in SF have suffered, but not nearly as much as their customer base has only decreased a little rather than a lot.
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