384. Now with COVID

 

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COVID finally catches up with me 

Day 795 of pandemic/340 since semi-return to normal - 5/20/2022

I am sitting at the long tables at the Bank Cafe for the first time since the pandemic started. This is because I need to charge my phone and backup battery and I can’t find a convenient wall outlet. Normally I do this at home, but I’ve had my phone on the energy saving setting and it managed to slip below 70% charge without my noticing. I kind of like this phone setting, all I don’t have is easy access to the flashlight and Google search. But I don’t see that it really saves that much. I expected the % left to stay nearly unchanged for days, which has not been the case. I will continue to try it over the weekend while I’m working, but may just return to the normal setting next week.

Recently I’ve been sitting in the lower level of the Bank Cafe, where the bathrooms are. It’s convenient for bathroom access and there tend to be fewer people down there since it’s been off limits for most of the past two years. And there are some comfortable chairs and sofas there as well. Still, it is underground and it is nice sitting up at ground level now and being able to see the street activity out the windows. 

Today the first Boeing Starliner is docking with the ISS. This is an unmanned mission to test all the equipment. Boeing has not looked good running this program. SpaceX looks so much better by comparison. Though landing the ships on land rather than at sea should be an improvement. I hope in time SpaceX will be able to do the rocket assisted landings they wanted. Maybe if Boeing screws up a few more times, NASA will fund that.

There’s a wonderful collection of videos about Classic American cars from the ‘50s and ‘60s called Charles Phoenix Joyride. Depending on the make and model, the peak of American car design was somewhere between 1955 and 1962. Probably. Curiously, the same cars preserved in Cuba by very strange economic forces. Of course these automobiles are also horrible in almost every other way. They are dangerous to the occupants and gas guzzlers. Still, lovely to look at. I’m surprised the MAGA crowd hasn’t built some propaganda around them, it would at least resonate with people of my age cohort -- people born between 1945 and 1965. Even I can wax nostalgic about that period: The foods I ate at the time that I couldn’t eat now. The good times prior to the bad times that followed. When we were naive enough to think well of our political leaders like Eisenhower and JFK. Of course it helps that at the time I didn’t know any people of color or people who were not at least trying to pass for heterosexual. And we will ignore the lead in the paint and gasoline and the radiation in the air and snow. Or the pollution in the rivers (where we would never go).

Still, it is amazing to find cars that are over 65 years old still looking so damn good.

5/23/2022

Just last night I saw an episode of Joyride featuring a ‘57 Bel Air, such a beauty.

This past weekend was Himalayan Fair in Berkeley’s Live Oak Park. So Berkeley. So difficult to get the vendors to understand the trash rules. After working a full shift on Saturday I was proclaiming two of the vendors the worst, most clueless I had ever seen. I only worked a half shift at the end of the day on Sunday, but I had already reconsidered. Yes, they were as bad as I thought, but, when you consider the situation from their perspective, we were like the priest of some really strange religious cult arbitrarily deciding what items go in which of the arbitrarily colored containers. One item even changed from day to day as it was called to our attention that the plates were “wax coated” and therefore landfill instead of compost. (And then this was corrected again so we went back to putting them in compost.) This is why I have “CHILL” written at the top of my Greening reminder list that I review before I leave the house.

Still, diapers in recycling and latex gloves and aluminum containers in compost makes no sense to me. But I’m sure they just see our three bins as festively colored.

The crew chief at the end of the day made what I considered “questionable” decisions about closing down stations serving the vendors sooner than I would have. I did make sure he was the one who had to deal with the consequences, though that meant I wasn’t around to see that. Saying the vendors should bring their end of the event trash to us is one thing, stopping them from just leaving it at the closest park trash can is another. If there is a next time, I can now remind him of what happened here.

Still it was nice to do this event again after the pandemic hiatus. Even if it does mean a 10 block walk back to Bart on the way home. (That actually isn’t true, or at least on Saturday there was a bus I could have taken had I waited for it. On Sunday I walked anyway because of a stunning waitress I had happened to notice on my walk the previous evening. There’s a fair amount of outdoor restaurant activity on Shattuck on the north side of University. Nice to see.

Because I wasn’t starting work until 4pm on Sunday, I decided to come a bit early and have lunch in Berkeley. I had done The Butcher’s Son deli last time, so this time I ate at Ike’s. Had a wonderful sandwich, though the bread was practically a dessert. I asked if they offered it as a wrap -- as Subway does -- but they don’t. A pity.

Day 799/344 - 5/24/2022 

Day of first COVID symptoms. Wouldn’t test positive until 5/26. Was probably infected 5/20-5/21. Damn close to 800 days since the pandemic began. 

5/24/22

Just woke up from an adventure movie of a dream with a plot I couldn’t begin to describe and a large cast and, right at the end, music by CCR. Looked at the time and it had been just about 90 minutes since I went to bed.

5/27/22

My standard pasta dish that doesn’t change from year to year but has changed almost entirely over 40 years. Only the broccoli remains.

5/30/22

Difficulty of managing post-covid!!! How long am I contagious? What can I do and what should I not do?

5/31/22

Finally sitting outside at Another Cafe. I was going to offer to switch seats with two guys who joined me here so I would be down wind. Glad I didn’t as they seem to be sicker than I am.

Another has a very good croissant. Now I’m going for my first uphill walk and then -- very quickly -- to the market for some essentials. 

Ran into information suggesting that I may not have been contagious last Monday and Tuesday like I feared. That’s assuming the vaccine did what it is supposed to do. And it looks like there’s a chance I could test negative before the weekend.

6/6/22

My first day out of isolation after twelve days in my apartment. Got a veggie breakfast croissant which I ate at home and now I’m sitting at the Bank Cafe with a chocolate croissant and my iced tea. I didn’t bring my personal cup, but I’m pretty sure I’m clean now after two negative tests. And my temp is down to 96F again, too.

Now I’m wondering exactly how much safer am I than before given all the different variants out there? Probably better but it’s not like I can start licking everything.

Day 820/8 days post-COVID - 6/14/2022

Today I made it back to the Pork Store for the first time since I came down with COVID. I’m happy to say my nose and taste buds are still working fine. In fact, I noticed that my favorite waitress was wearing a scent that I swear I remember from the ‘50s. So over 60 years ago, but I would swear it was a scent for little girls. It came in some sort of kit for girls pretending to be grown ups... something like the doctor kits I vaguely remember from the period. Maybe it’s been repackaged for adults?

6/21/2022

Post-covid life is more of a challenge than you would think. On the one hand I survived and everything worked out the way it was supposed to. But now I really want to relax -- after all, what are the odds of my catching it twice in a month! But then I just read in the NYT that the currently most prevalent variant doesn’t give much protection for the next two variants that are now spreading. Not that I have any idea which variant I had. And even if I did know, it wouldn’t help because I also don’t know which variants I could be exposed to in the future... or right now.

This past weekend I worked a North Beach street festival for the first time. I thought it was the Columbus Day event cleverly shifted to another month to avoid the push-back against all that Columbus represents. But I did a little more research and discovered this was an entirely different event and that -- “Italian Heritage Parade” -- event is still scheduled for the usual time. So I was wrong, but I think they would have been smarter doing what I was thinking.

I started out on Saturday with my mask on, but quickly gave up. For one thing I hadn’t used my anti-fogging spray -- turns out that is still necessary even when it’s warm -- and not many other people were and it was outdoors and not that crowded and I just finished isolating for over a week so give me a break. Anyway, I seem to have survived. 

6/23/2022 

And for an odd coda to my weekend: I’m sitting at Caffe Grecco enjoying a compensatory cookie and iced tea after picking up the latest check and crazy letter from the mentally ill woman in my building. So strange to be back in this block after spending so much of the last weekend working here. While we had one day of mid-90sF on Tuesday, it is now back to our usual weather, clear blue sky here, though I can hear the fog horns that signal there is a tongue of fog coming in through the Golden Gate. Every time I am forced to come over here to sign for a letter I didn’t catch at home, I give myself some kind of neighborhood treat. Last time it was an eclair from Victoria Bakery. This should be the last time, but if it happens again I may get an actual meal.

Quantum philosophy

6/29/2022

Over breakfast this morning at the Pork Store I was thinking about Free Will vs Determinism and quantum physics (quantum uncertainty and the collapse of the wave function) and how thoroughly the Ancient Greeks covered this material.

The Stoics hold my view of Determinism while the Epicureans managed to nail the uncertainty of quantum reality that can open the door to Free Will. Meanwhile Homer and the tragedians point out the consequences of Hard Determinism in the story of Cassandra who can actually see the future, which means there’s nothing she can do to change it.

It seems to me that one alternative to the Many Worlds approach to the Present moving into the Future, is a collapsing wave functions view. The future is an endless series of wave functions that collapse as we come to them. This is not inherently either Deterministic or allowing Free Will, but it does seem to allow for the possibility of Free Will. 

My personal view of Determinism is not as hard as the Cassandra story -- or any other story in which people can predict the future -- but I think the degree of uncertainty considering exactly how the next wave function will collapse is very limited. Similar to the uncertainty of very stable substances that will eventually undergo a change but probably not for a billion years or so.

383. The British North Africa Campaign

 

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Pandemic Update 

4/26/22 - Day 770/315

The new case rate has more than doubled since the low point on 3/12. The number of people in intensive care is still very low -- so this is what living with the virus looks like. Everyone has test kits now so if you get it you can quickly respond and get the treatment drug. Assuming you aren’t one of the many people with their head up their ass about COVID. 

I have no problem with this and I think our Mayor Breed has handled the pandemic perfectly. The situation with the “homeless” is impossible so I don’t judge her for that failure -- why should she be any different than all the mayors that came before her.

It’s my impression that viruses tend to become more infectious but less deadly over time -- could be wrong -- but I wouldn’t object to a more deadly variant to thin the anti-vax herd. Especially if it hits before the next election or even the one in 2024.

In non-COVID news, the Peet’s here has been so bad about stocking croissants that I finally looked for other sources in the neighborhood and found three. I tried one this morning (of course today Peet’s had croissants) and it was much better. Not sure if it was $2 better, but it was a nice change of pace. I will enjoy sampling the other two. And then the chocolate versions... the place I tried today even properly calls them Pain au Chocolat. I may end up opting for a combination of Peet’s pastries plus hitting one of the other, better places, when they are croissant free.

I had a great idea of repurposing my A History of Europe material on Medium, but then discovered that it isn’t yet in the public domain -- still at least a decade.

The British North African Campaign Re-examined

When you study the North African campaign in WW2, especially the British phase prior to Torch, it would seem that the British undermined their cause by diverting forces to Greece (March 1941) and then to Syria (June 1941). You might think that, if only they hadn’t done those things they could have performed better against the Germans (and Rommel). But what if this isn’t true? What if the British were being really cunning?

The logic behind the British North African campaign was the same as the logic behind the Peninsula Campaign during the Napoleonic Wars. The comparatively weaker British army would fight on land at a point that was easiest for them and hardest for their enemy. The Axis powers had to transport men and supplies across the Mediterranean Sea to North Africa where their ships and planes could be interdicted. The more successful the Germans and Italians were, the more troops and supplies they would need and the more difficult their logistics became. Finally, there was nothing west of Alexandria that the British really cared about. Winning or losing Cyrenaica meant nothing.

When you look at the situation in this way, then every time the British took Cyrenaica they made their logistical situation harder and risked the Germans realizing that this whole campaign was not really worth the trouble. So, by weakening their forces and setting up Rommel for a great victory, they were also pulling more Axis men and supplies into North Africa and stretching out the Axis lines of communications. If the British had sat down and picked a best spot to fight the decisive battle against the Axis in North Africa, El Alamein would have been an obvious option. Their own logistical situation was ideal while the Axis powers were stretched to the limit. And by November 1942 the Americans had arrived and were about to open a second front in the far west. It was time to put an end to the “game” and secure Africa prior to the invasion of Italy.

If this analysis is correct, then Churchill (I think it’s fair to give him credit here, he was a racist and a drunk, but he wasn’t stupid) played the Germans like a fiddle. 

The Bee Tree

The bush/tree outside my kitchen window is actually in the neighbor’s garden. I only see the top and side. If you had asked me, I would have said it blooms starting in March but at least this year it is only now, in May, really in full bloom. The blooms are not that impressive, but the bees seem to like them. As of this week it is buzzing with bees most of the day. I do wonder where the bees come from. I’ve even noticed a few bumble bees recently.The only hives I know of are over eight blocks away... I take that back, there may be one only a block away. I will have to check the next time I’m walking over there.

The blooming should be over some time next month at which point I will trim the bush back substantially as it has grown about two feet this spring and brushes against my building.

Our stubborn little tree in a large pot out in the alley is fully leafed out now. There are two branches at the top that seem to be dead and I’m wondering if I should prune it back now and how far. Last year it was really slow to green but this year it popped out early and looks pretty healthy. Pretty amazing considering what it has gone through over the years.It lives on my bath water, for the most part -- actually the water I catch while waiting for the stream to get hot when I take a shower. I would put in a pump to give me instant hot water without any waste, but that would require both electrical and plumbing work in a very small bathroom. Saving the water for the garden is probably the smarter solution.. 

Day 785/330 5/10/2022 Pandemic

The numbers are interesting. The new case numbers are almost as high as the Delta peak, but they are not going up at the same rate -- and nowhere near the Omicron rate -- and the hospitalization rates are still quite small. Lots of famous people are testing positive -- Steve Kerr, the Warriors coach is the latest --, but with minimal symptoms. If Omicron cleaned out the pockets of the unvaxxed, then maybe it is under control. I’ve stopped eating indoors and am taking extra precautions at times, but life is going on pretty much as normal. We are greening all the usual events -- I’m trying really hard to dodge working Bay2Breakers, I may have to play the “I’m 70!” card again.

For weeks I was trying to get caught up with a backlog of recommended pieces to read. I was just not making much progress. So I sorted through my inbox deleting all the old links it looked like I would never get around to. Now I’m caught up and wouldn’t mind looking up some of those links. Sometimes you just can’t win. So I’m going to reread my blog of A History of Europe starting at the beginning, or nearly the beginning.. Something I’ve been meaning to do in any case.

My second world traveling friend has contracted a mild case of COVID. This time in Italy. Everyone seems to be going to Italy.

Day 792/337 - 5/17/22

Noticed something I can’t explain while riding the bus just now. A young woman trotting barefoot in the mid-Market area caught my eye. The second time the bus caught up with her I noticed more: She was wearing a skirt and matching top but didn’t have any sort of bag or even a pocket; while her clothing looked normal, there was something about her fixed gaze that looked off. My guess is some sudden mental health breakdown. In a way, this is more disturbing than all the usual raving lunatics I see all the time.

Day 794/339 - 5/19/2022

Good looks

Since my “office” is in the same block as the Max Mara shop, I am teaching myself to appreciate those clothes Martha Grimes is so fond of. And I do like them, as clothes. A very simple, understated look that obviously is expensive to achieve. But I can’t say it’s a look I would prefer to see on an attractive woman. Perhaps my opinion would change if I actually saw them on attractive women.

There are a couple “looks” I have noticed recently and liked. There’s a simple jeans with a top look where the jeans are worn without a belt. I’m not sure why it works but it does. And there’s a somewhat older look where a woman wears long sleeves that cover most of her hands, only exposing perhaps half of her fingers. If she has nice hands, it is a great look. Again I don’t know why. And I’m still seeing that jeans with tall boots look that has worked for so long now. 

Ran into a thought provoking piece on Medium examining the various responses to the COVID pandemic and questioning some of the decisions that were made. Basically, she was thinking that perhaps the Swedes had it right all along and we shouldn’t have locked down in 2020. 

If you compare the experiences of NYC and SF, I think most people would agree that SF handled the situation better. The cost of locking down sooner was economic. The cost of waiting too long was in deaths and the overwhelming of the hospital system and resulting burnout of those workers. It would be interesting to compare the rate of essential hospital worker turnover in both areas. The nurses here think they are short staffed, but I don’t think they’ve ever been slammed like nurses in other areas have been. 

Yes, there is a high economic cost associated with this. Businesses here are still dying even as others are reopening or opening for the first time. Was the economic cost too high given the low fatality rate of the disease? How high would it have to be to justify the cost? Unfortunately, there’s no way to know how high the fatality rate will be before the fact so this calculus doesn’t really get you far. If you acted on the assumption that it would be just another flu, and then it turned out to be much more deadly you would be screwed. Though, given that a substantial portion of the population would rather see thousands of people die every day than get a free vaccine, you also have to question if all those potential deaths would be that much of a problem.

Our new case numbers are quite high right now, and I’m taking even more precautions than I was a month ago, but I’m still out every day and I do not want to see the city locked down again. The hospitalization rate is up, but the Intensive Care rate is still surprisingly low given that most of the cases are from the unvaccinated. And just in the past three months I finally know people, three at last count, who have caught mild cases of the disease. Now it really is more or less like the flu and my only regret is that it isn’t thinning the herd of more of the “hesitant.”

But we really should be planning for the next time, and not just the next surge. I continue to think that pandemic cases should be limited to specific facilities. The majority of hospitals should be able to operate normally. The hours nurses can work should be limited to prevent their burning out. People should be encouraged to remain at home if at all possible. Oxygen and other supplies and advice should be provided -- perhaps also a visiting nurse service -- but people (especially unvaccinated people when there is a vaccine -- should be kept out of the hospital as much as possible. Perhaps we need a form of pandemic hospice which may or may not end in death.

As for the economy, this is basically a natural disaster, like an earthquake or fire or hurricane. There should be governmental aid to help businesses. The biggest problem for business is when the customer base dries up as is the case here in the Financial Districts and Union Square. But this, again, is similar to what would happen in a major natural disaster. Tourists and conventioners and workers are going to be scarce after all the buildings burn down. 

This get especially complicated and I have no idea how to deal with it, but businesses need to be able to suspend operation for a reasonable length of time. Ruining retail business is not in the interest of landlords or the city. One thing that would improve the situation here is more residential units in the commercial/shopping districts. I would like to see at least 30% residential. This would guarantee a basic level of business even during a pandemic. The neighborhoods here in SF have suffered, but not nearly as much as their customer base has only decreased a little rather than a lot.